Get Dunked: A New Year and a New Patch

A new patch usually means big changes in the pro-scene. When a teams strengths are nerfed they tend to fall hard and fast (like Alliance post TI3). Other teams see their style of play buffed, turning them from relative outsiders into championship winning squads (OG at The Frankfurt Major, Vega Squadron at ESL, CDEC's run at TI5). Now, this may all seem obvious in hindsight but with only one LAN played so far on 6.86, it seems that the balance of power could well be shifting.

WCA 2015, for all its issues, was a telling tournament. Although many of the top tier teams were absent, it still featured a list of high level teams playing the 6.86 patch for the first time competitively (with Arteezy also standing in for Digital Chaos).

Alliance finished the competition in first place, securing themselves an unlikely invitation to The Shanghai Major. LGD placed second and Team Liquid took third place. Not many would have predicted Alliance to come out of WCA 2015 victorious. Even fewer would have expected CDEC not to make the top three, and it was almost unthinkable that Team Secret wouldn't make it through the group stage. 6.86, however, could indicate a change to the established order.

The picks and bans at WCA 2015 tell an interesting tale. At first glance it may look strikingly similar to the 6.85 meta; Tusk, Gyrocopter, Bane and Dazzle occupy the top four picks. Dark Seer, Io, Gyrocopter and Queen of Pain top the ban charts. Although Bane was the third highest pick during WCA, the hero was far from successful with only a 33% win rate.

Looking further down the table shows Earth Spirit banned the same number of times as Undying (who had an extremely high ban/pick rate in 6.85). It would be no surprise to see more of Earth Spirit as more teams become familiar with his play-style. For a hero new to captain's mode, Earth Spirit had an impressive 64% win rate. Less impressive was Oracle's debut, being picked a total of 9 times with a 44% win rate.

Alliance's success can be partially attributed to their willingness to be unique during the draft, but without taking needless risks. There's no surprise that the TI3 winning squad are playing to their old strengths; s4 on a play-making mid (he played Batrider 7 times, Puck 5) and Akke on a support who jungles and heals (Chen/Keeper of the Light). These two allow the gold to be split between AdmiralBulldog and Loda, who prioritize heroes that specialize in winning fights then taking objectives (Bulldog had 100% win rates with Nature's Profit, Jakiro and Beastmaster during WCA, Loda had 100% win rates on Naga Siren, Sven and Bristleback). It is no surprise that Alliance would favour a lineup that pushes fast and punishes mistakes. It is surprising, however, that this was the tactic that secured the first LAN victory on 6.86, especially when considering how important defensive supports were to EG and OG's 6.85 successes. It will be interesting to see whether other teams will adopt an approach similar to Alliance, or whether teams like EG or VP will dictate the future meta with innovative new drafts.

The Teams directly invited to The Shanghai Major

The Shanghai Major begins on March 2nd so there's plenty of time for teams to get acquainted with 6.86. Can Alliance build upon their early success? Will Secret or EG re-assert themselves at the top? Will China rise again? Or can a team like Liquid make it through the qualifiers and go on an incredible run like OG or CDEC before?

Only time will tell, but it should make for some great Dota drama. GLHF.